6 September 2025 – 13 September 2025
China Criticizes Canadian And Australian Warships Transiting Taiwan Strait – 6 SEPT 2025
Reuters (BEIJING) – Beijing criticized the passage of Canadian and Australian warships through the Taiwan Strait, framing the transit as provocation. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) monitored and issued warnings as the allied vessels conducted a routine passage, marking the first such join transit by Canberra and Ottawa. Source: (Reliability: Very High)
Analysis: It is likely that Beijing will intensify diplomatic protests and military shadowing in response to the growing number of allied transits, but it is unlikely that China will attempt direct interdiction in the near term, as escalation risks remain high. (Analytic Confidence: Moderate)
Comment: By joining the U.S. and U.K. in conducting Taiwan Strait passages, Australia and Canada add weight to a growing allied pattern by the West that makes it more difficult for Beijing to depict these operations as isolated provocations.
FBI Adapts Hunt Methods For Salt Typhoon And Volt Typhoon – 10 SEPT 2025
Cyberscoop (WASHINGTON) – Major intrusions into U.S. telecommunications groups and infrastructure by Chinese groups Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon have forced changes in FBI hunting tradecraft, reflecting persistence on critical networks and adaptation to stealthy techniques. An FBI official noted that the two groups have improved their tactics and methods . Source (Reliability: High)
Analysis: It is likely that People’s Republic of China (PRC) state actors will sustain cyber operations against critical U.S. and allied infrastructure, with campaign tempo increasing as Taiwan tensions escalate. (Analytic Confidence: Moderate)
Taiwan Minister Warns of ‘Domino Effect’ if China Takes Island – 12 SEPT 2025
Reuters (WASHINGTON) – Chiu Chui-cheng, head of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, warned that China’s growing military activity and refusal to renounce force against Taiwan suggests that Beijing might be preparing for war. Chiu argues that if Taiwan were to fall, it could trigger a “domino effect” destabilizing the Asia-Pacific and directly threatening U.S. influence and security. Source: (Reliability: Very High)
Analysis: It is highly likely that Taiwan and its foreign partners will increase diplomatic and military signaling in response to China’s rhetoric, to deter further escalation. (Analytic Confidence: High)
Philippines Protests PRC “Nature Reserve” Plan At Scarborough Shoal – 12 SEPT 2025
The Diplomat (WASHINGTON) – Manila filed a diplomatic protest over Beijing’s plan to designate a nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal, warning it could serve as a pretext for occupation of the contested feature. Source: (Reliability: High)
Comment: Environmental framing has emerged as a recurring tool for Beijing to justify administrative control at disputed features while complicating counter-messaging by claimant states.
China’s Third Carrier Fujian Departs Shanghai; Detected Near Senkaku Islands – 13 SEPT 2025
The Diplomat (WASHINGTON) – The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) carrier Fujian departed Jiangnan Shipyard on 10 September 2025. Japan’s Joint Staff detected the Fujian and two destroyers roughly 200 km northwest of the Senkaku Islands, heading southwest. Source: (Reliability: High)
Analysis: It is highly likely that the PLAN intends to conduct Fujian’s first long-range trial deployment within weeks, signaling advancing carrier readiness and pressuring Japan’s near seas defense posture. (Analytic Confidence: High)
The Security Brief 